Democrats ride momentum into mid-term election
2006-01-26

Category Legislature Elections Time Year Nations U.S. States West Virginia Vermont Tennessee Rhode Island Montana Nebraska Virginia Michigan Minnesota Florida Ohio Texas Pennsylvania North Carolina Missouri People Conrad Burns Jim Talent Lincoln Chafee Maria Cantwell Bob Casey Bill Frist Tom DeLay Event 2006 U.S. Midterm Election 2005 Abramoff Scandal Global War on Terrorism Category U.S. Democrat Party Category 2007

Democrats are riding a wave of momentum into November's high-stakes battle for the U.S. Congress, with high hopes for significant gains that could threaten Republican control of the House and Senate.

Republicans enter the campaign after the toughest stretch of President George W. Bush's presidency, fueled by an unpopular war in Iraq, economic uncertainty, political scandals and Bush's low approval ratings.

But despite the favorable political mood for Democrats, analysts say the party faces major hurdles to gaining the six Senate and 15 House seats needed to reclaim control of Congress.

To win majorities, Democrats need to capture most of a small pool of competitive seats in the House while bumping off at least five Republican Senate incumbents -- tough tasks in any political climate, but not impossible.

"It looks like the Democrats will gain seats in the House and Senate, but the question is how many. Is it going to be a Democratic tide or a Democratic tsunami?" asked Larry Sabato, a political analyst at the University of Virginia.

"It is going to be hard for Democrats, but if the situation continues to deteriorate for Republicans this year anything is possible," he said.

Democratic majorities in Congress would allow them to control the legislative agenda and put the brakes on many of Bush's policy initiatives, while even small gains would increase their clout in Capitol Hill battles over issues like judges, taxes and national security.

The best chance for a Democratic breakthrough could be the Senate, where 33 of 100 seats are on the ballot. Republicans hold 15 of those seats and Democrats 18, but five of the most endangered incumbents at this stage are Republicans.

Republicans Mike DeWine of Ohio, Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, Jim Talent of Missouri and Conrad Burns of Montana all face tough re-election races.

The open Tennessee seat of retiring Republican Bill Frist is also on the Republican endangered list, while Democrats face a battle defending the open Minnesota seat of retiring Mark Dayton.

Democrats also must defend open seats in Maryland and the Vermont seat of retiring and Democratic-leaning independent Jim Jeffords, along with incumbents Bill Nelson in Florida, Ben Nelson in Nebraska, Maria Cantwell in Washington, Robert Byrd in West Virginia and Debbie Stabenow in Michigan.

"Before they go after our incumbents they are going to have to defend their own. These open seats certainly offer an opportunity," said Sen. Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina, head of the Senate Republican campaign committee.

The toughest and highest-profile race of the year could be in Pennsylvania, where Santorum, the third-ranking Republican in the Senate, badly trails Democratic challenger Bob Casey Jr.

DEMOCRATS NEED SWEEP

"The Democrats have to sweep the competitive Republican races to take power, while holding all of their own. That's tough," said Jennifer Duffy, an analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

"That means they have to win the open seat in Tennessee and beat five Republican incumbents. The last time five incumbents lost was 1986," she said.

Burns has become ensnared in the growing corruption investigation involving Republican lobbyist Jack Abramoff, which Democrats use as a prime example of the Republican "culture of corruption" in Washington.

Also caught up in the explosion of scandals is former House Republican Leader Tom DeLay of Texas and former House Administration Committee Chairman Bob Ney of Ohio, who both face tough re-election races.

The public so far is not blaming either party for the scandals, polls show, but they crave a change in Washington and favor Democrats on most issues, with the major exception of national security and the war on terrorism.

"There is an anti-incumbent mood out there and Republicans are the ones who will bear the brunt of it," said Senate Democratic campaign committee spokesman Phil Singer.

On the House side, redistricting after the 2000 census safeguarded incumbents across the country and reduced the number of competitive districts to a few dozen. The Cook Report lists only 28 House districts that are toss-ups or somewhat competitive, with Republicans defending 18 and Democrats 10.

Republicans say that will force Democrats to score a near sweep of competitive districts if they want to reclaim power. They are counting on the races turning on local issues rather than national trends.

"People don't go into a voting booth and pull the Bush lever or the anti-Bush lever or the Republican lever, they vote for a person," said House Republican campaign spokesman Carl Forti.

"So you have to make a case to the constituents of a district why their incumbent needs to be fired, and being from the same party as Tom DeLay or George Bush isn't enough."